Why is Lake Urmia Drying up? Prognostic Modeling With Land-Use Data and Artificial Neural Network

Lake Urmia (LU) is considered as the largest salt water lake in Iran and has severe restrictions on resources becoming a increasingly. The LU drought will Couse ecological, health, social economic problems. Land-use change increasing of areas evaluated this work using satellite imagery. We present situation changes area past further until 2025. results indicated that from 1987 to 2000, process slowed down less than 2% lake’s was reduced, 2000 2010, these shrinking processes were faster more 28% disappeared. intensity 2010 2014 very severe. Using Land Transformation Model, continuation modeled modeling indicate conversion period, north part, shallow waters occupy 0.7% total area. result shows climate not significant factors for drying up but human such building dams store irrigation, groundwater use by established deeper wells agricultural irrigation important drying. With changing management leading transfer new between 2016, increased double. It evident proper planning managing resources, restoration can be achieved.